Strong villages and towns in Europe: insights from the EU Rural Observatory
New EU Rural Observatory research examines population change across Europe’s rural and urban settlements and identifies the characteristics associated with growth, pinpointing potential areas for targeted local policies.
Image by pasja1000 from pixabay
The EU’s population grew by 2.6% in cities and 0.6% in towns between 2011 and 2021 but decreased by 0.4% in villages. These findings, revealed in a new report and policy brief from the Rural Observatory, run by the Joint Research Centre, are based on analysis of 40 000 villages, towns and cities across Europe. This assessed how these settlements have changed over the period – and what is linked to those changes.
The simple picture of growing cities, more stable towns and shrinking villages hides more nuanced population trends across Europe’s urban and rural areas. The population is growing in functional urban areas, which are defined as cities and their commuting zones. Within these areas, however, the population is deconcentrating – growing faster outside cities. The opposite is true in functional rural areas, which include central market towns and their hinterland. Here, the population is shrinking overall but concentrating in towns. These EU averages also mask significant geographical differences. On average, both functional urban and rural areas grew in north-western EU countries, while functional rural areas declined in southern and eastern EU countries.
Demographic change cannot be altered easily, but understanding its dynamics can help decision-makers anticipate where growth is more likely to happen and identify the factors that favour it. The analysis highlights the key characteristics of settlements with favourable demographic patterns and suggests potential targeted local policies to encourage this.
Improving attractiveness through connectivity and access to services
Road transport, digital accessibility and access to public services are significantly associated with population growth. Settlements with strong transport and broadband performance are more likely to experience population growth. Access to public services, such as schools and hospitals, and the availability of good rail connections are also associated with higher population growth. Improving transport, broadband and access to services, where feasible, can make small settlements more appealing to current and prospective residents.
Regional centres, that is, the largest settlement within a wider area, tend to grow faster. Locating services in these centres, while ensuring good access from surrounding villages, could improve service provision across a wider area and reinforce their anchor role.
The analysis showed that towns and villages close to a city tend to grow faster because this proximity provides access to diversified labour markets, higher wages, business and political networks, and more cultural and social opportunities.
Demographic and geographic factors favouring growth
Villages lost population overall between 2011 and 2021. However, when otherwise comparable settlements are considered, lower-density villages, towns and cities tended to grow faster – possibly because they had more room to accommodate new housing. In more densely populated places, targeted policies can help to increase the housing supply and, where needed, manage the pressure of overtourism.
Settlements with a higher share of working-age residents and immigrant populations tend to grow more rapidly, according to the research. This highlights the demographic contribution of migration and the importance of supporting the integration of foreign-born residents in local communities.
The analysis also showed that areas with higher employment rates, particularly in north-west Europe, display significantly higher population growth. This underscores the importance of boosting economic development in left-behind areas.
Lastly, geographic factors like mild climates and proximity to the coast are also associated with demographic growth. Remote areas and settlements close to national land borders are more likely to shrink, the research found.
Explore the latest Rural Pact resources on the topic of demography and join the Community Group on rural depopulation and repopulation to connect and exchange with peers.
Discover how data from Eurostat can help identify rural communities with limited road access to health and education services in a dedicated Rural Pact article.
Authors: Lewis Dijkstra, Mert Kompil, Paola Proietti, Joint Research Centre (Territorial Development Unit), European Commission