JRC study reveals rising demographic pressures threatening citizens’ ‘right to stay’ in their home regions
Population decline, ageing and migration dynamics are expected to deepen territorial disparities across the EU in the coming decades, a new report by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) reveals.
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The publication Demographic Outlook on ‘right to stay’ examines the principle that people should be able to remain in their home regions – rural, remote or otherwise – without being compelled to leave due to declining opportunities or essential services.
The report explores the conditions that enable citizens to exercise this right, concluding that demographic decline will persist in the medium term and that territorial policies must focus on maintaining accessible services, supporting strong local communities and breaking the self-reinforcing cycle between demographic and economic decline.
It highlights that differences within countries often surpass those between them, with regional fertility, age structures and migration patterns increasingly diverging despite national-level convergence in fertility and life expectancy.
Ageing is projected to accelerate until the 2040s, driven by low fertility, demographic inertia and sustained out-migration from economically weaker regions – pressures that directly threaten residents’ ‘right to stay’. Migration emerges as a central factor, particularly youth out-migration among 25-29 year-olds, which closely mirrors regional economic inequalities. Most mobility occurs within national borders, with poorer regions experiencing higher internal out-flows.
At local level, urbanisation and suburbanisation patterns further shape demographic outcomes: young adults cluster in cities, families gravitate toward suburban areas, and many rural and remote territories face shrinking and ageing populations. These trends underscore the need for policies that secure a meaningful ‘right to stay’ by ensuring viable futures across all types of regions.